The Board of Directors for The Pointe homeowners' association asked us to compile a real estate update for its winter newsletter. Here is what we wrote and submitted for publication.
At the end of the year, it’s always interesting to unpack the statistics of a neighborhood. This year is no exception. Activity in The Pointe has shown some interesting shifts this year relative to last year. These shifts are reflective of a metrowide market trend our REALTOR® Association has been highlighting all year. We discuss them below.
1. SALES ARE UP. It’s true in The Pointe. Last year, 44% of the total inventory sold and closed. This year, if we look at what has sold, plus all homes that have accepted purchase agreements waiting to close, we can say that 60% of the inventory in the neighborhood will sell this year.
2. INVENTORY IS DOWN. In The Pointe, 15 unique properties participated in the market in 2011, compared to 21 last year. Of those fifteen, 10 are traditional in nature, and 5 of them (33%) are financially distressed. This number, fortunately, is still below our metro marketplace average of 40%, however, that number has crept up from last year. (Last year 19% of Pointe inventory was distressed.)
3. PRICING IS DOWN. This year Pointe homes, are selling for an average of $98 per finished square foot, at an average sales price of $322,529. We can break this number apart even further by taking seller-paid closing costs into consideration, thereby looking at the true net-to-seller figures. Using these figures, Pointe homes are selling for an average of $95.60 per square foot, at an average sales price of $317,591.
Let’s compare to 2010. Last year, Pointe homes sold for an average of $117 per finished square foot, with an average sales price of $361,309. With seller-paid closing costs, these figures are adjusted slightly, to $357,950 and $116.93, respectively.
Now for the logical question: If sales are up, and inventory is down, HOW can pricing be down? It seems to go against basic economic rules. Quite simply, distressed properties continue to challenge our market. Before we go into panic mode, let’s take a look at some of the improvements in our market. The higher sales volumes and lower inventories are a benefit to homeowners in that they equate to less competition, thereby helping to create a degree of pricing buoyancy. This is most evident in the stabilization of our market, compared to the rapid pricing plummets seen several years back. At least now we can say that our pricing is bobbing.
Interest rates remain historically low. Rates are driving buyer activity, which held steady into late October. And buyer activity is good for sellers. Those who subscribe to our West Savage Home Prices Update probably noticed the rise in pending activity in the late fall period, as buyers wrote purchase agreements with the intent to close before Christmastime. (If you don’t receive this Update and would like to, email us.) And of course, those seeking to refinance are relishing these rates, which are hovering around 3.375% for a 15-year fixed and 4% for a 30-year fixed.
Pricing on higher-end inventories like custom homes, acreage and lakeshore has become highly attractive. Paired with low interest rates, upper bracket property has become all the more affordable, and we are seeing more families gravitate towards their dream home. The moving process is a two-part equation. (Selling + Buying = Complete Transaction) Focusing on the pricing savings on the Buy Side is a driving motivator for many when it comes to achieving their long-term housing goals.
We are also noticing that some banks are experimenting with higher pricing levels when initially listing foreclosed property to the market, adjusting the price only after a certain period of time has elapsed with no offers. This is a welcome strategy to the traditional seller, who although does not necessarily compete directly with these properties, is still impacted by them.
Another trend worthy of mention is that temporary rental housing between property moves has grown increasingly the norm. Many sellers want to ensure their home sale is consummated before they begin a home search or break ground on a new home. Some move into temporary housing after the sale of their home, with the intent of taking their time with the new home search, so they can buy exactly what they want once it hits the market. They view it as a short-term inconvenience to obtain a long-term objective.
Price points experiencing the highest degree of sales volume are those under $300K. Markets above $400K are quieter. Everything in the middle is just that… somewhere in the middle.
In last winter’s issue, we encouraged people to seek opportunities in this market. We continue to do so. Finding one that is the most feasible and best suits your needs is up to you, and those that are the patient and flexible benefit the most. Give us a call at 952-212-3597 if we can help.
(Statistics quoted are as of November 21, 2011. Chad and Sara Huebener are full-time REALTORS® with Edina Realty in Savage. )