If you've been tracking the market lately, you've noticed that the market is much more improved today than it was in recent years past, with home sales rising and prices inching upwards. The inventory of existing homes is at its lowest level in seven years.
Falling inventory is causing home prices to rise higher and faster than most housing analysts anticipated. The national median price of transacted homes was up 9.5 percent in August.
As winter approaches, inventory will decline, as is typical for this time of year. After Thanksgiving, the market quiets a bit in terms of new inventory, and we expect this year will be no exception. Historically, housing inventory is 15% lower in the winter months, and this number is probably a little higher in Minnesota. Last year, housing inventory was 25% lower in the winter.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of REALTORS, hopes this trend will not continue this year for the reason that home values rising much faster than income growth cuts into affordability.
That said, that is precisely what he believes we have coming. Distressed properties will decline in volume due to fewer borrowers being seriously delinqent. And home construction, while up, is still at only half of its historic average. (Though locally, we have seen hotbeds of activity in the area.) The traditional seller who has been holding off to sell and eventually makes the jump, will be turning around and purchasing another home. All these factors have an impact on inventory levels remaining low.
Of course spring market will produce more listings and create an inventory jump. The trend we are watching for through the winter and into spring is a housing inventory shortage.